It was June 5, 2013 that MarketWatch published an article to the effect of assigning an 87% chance of a stock market crash by the end of 2013. 87% is about a 6 out of 7 chance; a pretty sure thing. But more than that, 87% is a very specific number. MarketWatch was wrong. We know this because the S&P 500 rose steadily through the year and didn't crash at all (not even a bit.) But since they used 87% specifically they are also ridiculously wrong. A fact that will not escape the Scoreboard (unfortunately, the Scoreboard only records whether you were right or wrong, but after this I'm mulling over adding a "ridiculously wrong" mark as well.)
I guess that if you are going to pretend that you can predict the future you might as well go all the way, pull out all of the stops, and pretend that you can predict the future with amazing precision.